Báo cáo Thực trạng ngành bảo hiểm Việt Nam năm 2010, dự báo đến 2014

This report differs from its predecessors in several respects. In our analysis of competitive conditions, we provide a much more comprehensive ranking of insurance companies in the major segments from the point of view of the organisation that is providing the data (in practice almost always the national insurance regulator or the national insurance trade association). In Poland, for instance, the three largest non-life companies in the first half of 2009 – in terms of Gross Written Premiums written - were PZU SA, STU ERGO Hestia SA and TUiR WARTA SA, whose market shares were 38.9%, 10.0% and 9.4% respectively. In the life segment, the leaders in the first half of 2009 were PZU Życie SA, ING TUnŻ SA and TUnŻ WARTA SA, whose market shares were 28.1%, 11.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over time, we hope to derive insights from observing how market shares change. We emphasise though, that a decline in Vietnam Insurance Report Q1 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 share of Gross Written Premiums is not automatically a bad thing and is often the result of a deliberate corporate decision to focus on more profitable business lines. In this report, we also provide a breakdown of the insurance sector by line – from the point of view of the regulator or the trade association. In Poland, for instance, the largest non-life lines in 2008 were compulsory motor third party liability (CMTPL), land vehicles voluntary insurance (CASCO) and fire and diverse risks. These accounted for 35%, 26% and 10%, respectively, of total non-life premiums. Over time, we should be able to use this information to bring greater sophistication to our forecasting process.

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Q1 2010 www.businessmonitor.com insurance report issn 1752-8410 published by Business Monitor international Ltd. VietnaM INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subs@businessmonitor.com Web: © 2009 Business Monitor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Vietnam Insurance Report Q1 2010 Including 5-year industry forecasts by BMI Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Publication date: December 2009 Vietnam Insurance Report Q1 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 2 Vietnam Insurance Report Q1 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 3 CONTENTS Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................................5 Table: Overview Of Vietnam’s Insurance Sector................................................................................................................................................... 5 Key Insights On Vietnam’s Insurance Sector......................................................................................................................................................... 5 SWOT Analysis.................................................................................................................................................7 Vietnam Insurance Industry SWOT....................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Vietnam Political SWOT ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Vietnam Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Vietnam Business Environment SWOT................................................................................................................................................................. 8 Global Outlook..................................................................................................................................................9 Asia Pacific Overview ....................................................................................................................................11 Projections And Forecasts............................................................................................................................15 Table: Insurance Premiums, 2006-2014............................................................................................................................................................... 15 Projections And Drivers Of Growth..................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Table: Growth Drivers, 2006-2014 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Country Update ..............................................................................................................................................17 Macroeconomic Forecast ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Table: Vietnam – Economic Activity, 2007-2014................................................................................................................................................ 19 Political Outlook.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 19 Insurance Business Environment Rating....................................................................................................22 Table: Vietnam’s Insurance Business Environment Indicators ............................................................................................................................ 22 Table: Asia Pacific Insurance Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................. 23 Regional Context............................................................................................................................................24 Table: Non-Life Premiums In A Regional Context, 2008.................................................................................................................................... 24 Table: Life Premiums In A Regional Context, 2008............................................................................................................................................ 25 Major Players In Vietnam’s Insurance Sector .............................................................................................26 Table: Non-Life Segment By Lines, H109 (VNDmn) ......................................................................................................................................... 26 Table: Life Segment By Lines, H109 (VNDmn).................................................................................................................................................. 27 Table: Leading Non-Life Companies By Gross Written Premiums, H109 (VNDmn) ......................................................................................... 27 Table: Leading Life Companies By Gross Written Premiums, H109 (VNDmn) ................................................................................................. 27 Analysis Of Regional Competitive Conditions............................................................................................28 Local Company Profiles ................................................................................................................................33 Bao Minh............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33 Bao Viet............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34 PJICO .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35 Regional Company Profiles ..........................................................................................................................36 AEGON ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36 AIG...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37 Allianz ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42 Aviva ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45 Vietnam Insurance Report Q1 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4 AXA .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47 Cardif................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 49 Fortis.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52 Generali ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 54 Groupama ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 56 HDI-Gerling......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 58 HSBC Insurance .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 61 ING Group........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 64 Liberty Mutual..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65 Manulife .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 67 MetLife ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 69 Prudential Financial ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 72 Prudential Plc....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 75 QBE..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 78 RSA ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 80 Sun Life Financial................................................................................................................................................................................................ 81 The Principal........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 83 Zurich Financial Services .................................................................................................................................................................................... 84 Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data.........................................................................................86 Section 1: Population ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 86 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030......................................................................................................................................................... 86 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ........................................................................................................................................................ 87 Section 2: Education And Healthcare .................................................................................................................................................................. 87 Table: Education, 2002-2005............................................................................................................................................................................... 87 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030........................................................................................................................................................................ 87 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power.................................................................................................................................................. 88 Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004.......................................................................................................................................................... 88 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)................................................................................................................................................ 88 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................................89 Insurance Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................ 90 Table: Insurance Business Environment Indicators And Rationale...................................................................................................................... 90 Table: Weighting Of Indicators ........................................................................................................................................................................... 91 Vietnam Insurance Report Q1 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5 Executive Summary Table: Overview Of Vietnam’s Insurance Sector Non-life segment VNDmn US$mn EURmn 2008 premiums, mn 10,855,000 661 449 2008-2013 premium growth, mn 12,641,000 763 690 2008-2013 CAGR, % 17% 17% 20% 2008 penetration, % of GDP 0.7% Segment Measure of Openness to New Entrants (out of 10) 5.0 BMI Segment Rating 32.5 Life segment 2008 premiums, mn 10,330,000 629 428 2008-2013 premium growth, mn 11,106,800 671 612 2008-2013 CAGR, % 16% 16% 19% 2008 penetration, % of GDP 0.7% Segment Measure of Openness to New Entrants (out of 10) 5.0 BMI Segment Rating 35.0 Total insurance sector 2008 premiums, mn 21,185,000 1,289 877 2008-2013 CAGR, % 16% 16% 20% 2008 penetration, % of GDP 1.4% BMI insurance business environment rating 44.2 CAGR = compound annual growth rate. Source: BMI Key Insights On Vietnam’s Insurance Sector This report differs from its predecessors in several respects. In our analysis of competitive conditions, we provide a much more comprehensive ranking of insurance companies in the major segments from the point of view of the organisation that is providing the data (in practice almost always the national insurance regulator or the national insurance trade association). In Poland, for instance, the three largest non-life companies in the first half of 2009 – in terms of Gross Written Premiums written - were PZU SA, STU ERGO Hestia SA and TUiR WARTA SA, whose market shares were 38.9%, 10.0% and 9.4% respectively. In the life segment, the leaders in the first half of 2009 were PZU Życie SA, ING TUnŻ SA and TUnŻ WARTA SA, whose market shares were 28.1%, 11.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over time, we hope to derive insights from observing how market shares change. We emphasise though, that a decline in Vietnam Insurance Report Q1 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 share of Gross Written Premiums is not automatically a bad thing and is often the result of a deliberate corporate decision to focus on more profitable business lines. In this report, we also provide a breakdown of the insurance sector by line – from the point of view of the regulator or the trade association. In Poland, for instance, the largest non-life lines in 2008 were compulsory motor third party liability (CMTPL), land vehicles voluntary insurance (CASCO) and fire and diverse risks. These accounted for 35%, 26% and 10%, respectively, of total non-life premiums. Over time, we should be able to use this information to bring greater sophistication to our forecasting process. Writing in December 2009, we have been able to ensure that the report includes actual data for 2008. We have generally been able to use data that has been published over the course of 2009 to adjust our forecasts for the year as a whole. We have also extended the forecasts out to 2014. We are looking for total premiums in 2009 of VND21,743,254mn. This includes non-life premiums of VND11,757,081mn and life premiums of VND9,986,174mn. In 2014, the corresponding figures should be VND54,079,998mn, VND26,575,793mn and VND27,504,205mn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, we are looking for non-life penetration to rise from .77% in 2009 to 1.08% in 2014, and for life density to rise from US$6 to US$9. BMI’s proprietary Insurance Business Environment Rating for Vietnam is 44.2. This quarter, we include a discussion of developments within regional markets on the basis of results published by major cross-border companies in relation to Q209 or Q309 and the latest information provided by regulators and/or trade associations. Aside from Singapore, most of the markets of South East Asia represent small portions of the regional businesses of cross-border insurers in Asia Pacific. The individual markets of South East Asia, other than Singapore,
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