Luận án Migration, climate change, and unemployment in Asia

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY .. HUYNH HIEN HAI MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Ho Chi Minh City – 2023 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY .. HUYNH HIEN HAI MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA Research Area: Economics Code: 9310101 DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Supervisors: Dr. Vo Hong Duc Assoc. Prof., Dr. Ha Thi Thieu Dao Ho Chi Minh City – 2023 i This dissertation is implemented at Ho Chi Minh city Open University Supervisors: 1. Dr. Vo Hong Duc 2. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ha Thi Thieu Dao Reviewer 1: .. Reviewer 2: .. Reviewer 3: .. This dissertation will be defended at Ho Chi Minh city Open University At .. date The dissertation is stored at: - The library of Ho Chi Minh city Open University - The National library of Vietnam ii DISSERTATION DECLARATION I, Huynh Hien Hai, certify that:  This dissertation has been substantially accomplished during enrolment in this degree.  This dissertation does not contain material which has been submitted for the award of any other degree of diploma in my name, in any university or other tertiary institution.  In the future, no part of this dissertation will be used in a submission in my name, for any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution without the prior of Ho Chi Minh city Open University and where applicable, any partner institution responsible for the joint-award of this degree.  This dissertation does not contain any material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference has been made in the text and where relevant, in the Authorship Declaration that follows.  This dissertation does not violate or infringe any copyright, trademark, patent, or other rights whatsoever of any person.  This dissertation contain work under review for publication, some of which has been co-authors. Signature: Date: iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS For myself five years ago, that dreadful cave is symbolized by an academic journey through a PhD, the completion of which involves a great deal of preparation, trials and errors, discipline, perseverance, and coffee. Talking shortcuts is rarely an option and addressing constructive criticism becomes an integral aspect of my work. Fortunately, the life of a PhD candidate has many rewarding facets. Being able to build and share valuable skills and experience as a youngster in a dynamic and international environment is one of them. At the Ho Chi Minh city Open University (OU), I am grateful to so many people for acquiring a combination of skills which were necessary to complete my studies and to prepare myself for future changes. Here is the utmost right place to thank them. This dissertation has been examined by Dr. Vo Hong Duc (The University of Western Australia and Ho Chi Minh City Open University) and Assoc. Prof., Dr. Ha Thi Thieu Dao (Ho Chi Minh University of Banking). I would like to express my sincerest thanks to the two examiners for the valuable time they devoted to the assessment of my work. Their comments, which range from general commendations to critical assessments on various aspects of the dissertation presentation, have motivated me greatly to strive for improved quality and clarity. Interestingly, I would like to thank my lecturers, my colleagues and many PhD students who have guided me, supported me in my PhD Journey and participated in the evaluation committee in the past steps of the dissertation. They have given to me many comments, encouragements, helpful advice and timely reminders that they have helped me become more and more mature in my research journey in the past, current and both in the future. I also especially thank the dissertation committees at the levels steps by steps for giving me helpful comments and advice. My family plays no small part in the successful endeavor of this project. I thank my parents, my wife, my friends whose support and understanding are always with me iv wherever my dreams lead me. Words alone are not sufficient to express what I owe people. I thus dedicate my dissertation work to them. With all this said, I am eager to explore the next cave to find the next treasure in my life. Ho Chi Minh, 2023 Huynh Hien Hai v SUMMARY OF DISSERTATION MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA This dissertation contributes to the literature on climatic factors, international migration, and unemployment in several ways. The motivations for the study emerge from practical circumstances and research gaps from the existing literature. Statistics reveal that Asia is ranked the second-largest region in the world in terms of the number of migrants, following Europe. On the theoretical aspects, this study offers a comprehensive and systematic review of migration theories within the context of climate change and labor market unemployment. The study aims to provide a comprehensive review of relevant theories and empirical analyses to identify research gaps. Based on empirical results, this dissertation analyzes the influence of climatic factors on migration and investigates their impact on unemployment in Asian countries. This study also examines the effects of climatic factors on the labor market, including unemployment, in the short and long terms. This study primarily focuses on climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and carbon dioxide emissions, which affect migration and unemployment. The study provides important empirical results pertaining to Asian countries, with a focus on both the short and long term. This study seeks to discover new findings related to the complex interactions among climate change, migration, and unemployment, especially at the macro-level in Asia. The dissertation starts with research objectives, contributions, the theoretical framework, and research questions. It proceeds to provide definitions related to migration, climate change, and unemployment. The study also systematically synthesizes relevant issues which are then addressed in this dissertation, including the impacts of climate change and socio-economic factors on migration in Asia. In addition, the effects of migration on unemployment have also been investigated for Asian countries. The influence of climatic factors on unemployment has also been investigated in Asia. Contents CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 8 1.1. Overview ................................................................................................................. 8 1.2. Research objectives and questions ........................................................................ 17 1.3. The value and contributions of the dissertation .................................................... 18 1.4. Subject and scope .................................................................................................. 19 1.5. Dissertation outline ............................................................................................... 20 1.6. Summary ............................................................................................................... 20 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................................... 22 2.1 Definitions............................................................................................................. 22 2.1.1 The migrations ...................................................................................................... 22 2.1.2 The climate change ............................................................................................... 27 2.1.3 The unemployment ............................................................................................... 28 2.2 Theories of migration ............................................................................................ 30 2.2.1 Laws of migration by Ravenstein (1885).............................................................. 31 2.2.2 The dual-sector model by Lewis (1954) ............................................................... 33 2.2.3 Lee’s Migration Model (1966) .............................................................................. 35 2.2.4 Harris – Todaro model (1969) .............................................................................. 38 2.2.5 The new economics of labor migration model (1980s) ........................................ 42 2.2.6 World Systems theory by Wallerstein (1974) ....................................................... 44 2.2.7 The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (1992) .................................................. 47 2.2.8 The drivers of migration by Black (2011) ............................................................ 50 2.2.9 Summary of theories linking climate change, migration and unemployment ...... 51 2.3 Research gap and contributions ............................................................................ 52 2.3.1 Climate change and migration .............................................................................. 52 2.3.2 Migration and unemployment ............................................................................... 53 2 2.3.3 Climate change and unemployment ...................................................................... 54 2.3.4 Contributions......................................................................................................... 56 2.4 Theoretical framework and research questions ..................................................... 56 2.5 Summary ............................................................................................................... 59 CHAPTER 3 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC FACTORS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN ASIA .............. 60 3.1 Introduction: .......................................................................................................... 60 3.2 Literature review ................................................................................................... 65 3.3 Methodology and data........................................................................................... 79 3.3.1 Data ....................................................................................................................... 80 3.3.2 Methodology ......................................................................................................... 80 3.3.3 Research Model .................................................................................................... 82 3.4 Results and discusions: ......................................................................................... 84 3.4.1 Descriptive statistics ............................................................................................ 84 3.4.2 Collinearity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity tests .................................... 85 3.4.3 Results of S.GMM estimations: ........................................................................... 87 3.5 Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 92 3.6 Summary .............................................................................................................. 94 CHAPTER 4 THE EFFECTS OF MIGRATION ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA ..... 96 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 96 4.2 Literature review ................................................................................................. 100 4.3 Methodology and data......................................................................................... 113 4.2.1 Data ..................................................................................................................... 113 4.2.2 Methodology ....................................................................................................... 114 4.2.3 Research Model .................................................................................................. 114 4.3 Results ................................................................................................................. 117 4.3.1 Descriptive statistics ........................................................................................... 117 4.3.2 Collinearity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity tests ................................... 118 3 4.3.3 Results of GMM estimations: ............................................................................. 121 4.4 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 122 4.5 Summary ............................................................................................................. 125 CHAPTER 5 THE INFLUENCES OF THE CLIMATIC FACTORS ON UNMEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA ........................................................................ 127 5.1 Introduction: ........................................................................................................ 127 5.1.1 The climate change ............................................................................................. 131 5.1.2 The unemployment rate ...................................................................................... 134 5.2 Literature review ................................................................................................. 138 5.3 Methodology and data......................................................................................... 148 5.3.1 Data ..................................................................................................................... 148 5.3.2 Methodology ....................................................................................................... 149 5.3.3 Research model ................................................................................................... 150 5.4 Results ................................................................................................................. 153 5.4.1 Descriptive statistics .......................................................................................... 153 5.4.2 Empirical results – Effects of climate factors to unemployment using GLS estimation in short-run techniques ...................................................................... 154 5.4.4 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using in long-run techniques by FMOLS, DOLS and CCR ............................................................ 158 5.4.5 Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by upper-income countries group .................................................... 161 5.4.6 Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by lower-income countries group .................................................... 164 5.5 Results and discussions ....................................................................................... 166 5.6 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 168 5.7 Summary ............................................................................................................. 172 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS .................................................................. 173 6.1 Conclusions and contributions ............................................................................ 173 6.1.1 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 173 6.1.2 Academic contributions ...................................................................................... 174 4 6.2 Policy implications.............................................................................................. 181 6.2.1 National policies on climate change ................................................................... 181 6.2.2 National policies on international migration and climatic migration ................. 187 6.2.3 National policies on unemployment ................................................................... 191 6.3 Summary ............................................................................................................. 197 References 199 APPENDIX 1 LIST THE SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES .................................................. 214 APPENDIX 2 ECONOMETRIC RESULTS.............................................................................. 216 5 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Key data by the World Migration Reports between 2000 and 2020....................... 9 Table 2.1 Theories of migration defined by level of analysis ............................................... 31 Table 3.1 Empirical researches on the relationship between climate change and migration 69 Table 3.2 List of proposed variables .................................................................................... 82 Table 3.3 Descriptive statistics ............................................................................................ 84 Table 3.4 Collinearity test ..................................................................................................... 86 Table 3.5 Autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity test .......................................................... 86 Table 3.6 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to migration using S.GMM estimations ............................................................................................................ 87 Table 4.1 Empirical researches on the relationship between migration and unemployment ............................................................................................................................. 105 Table 4.2 List of variables and data sources on migration flows and unemployment rate . 115 Table 4.3 Descriptive statistics ........................................................................................... 117 Table 4.4 Collinearity matrix .............................................................................................. 119 Table 4.5 Autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity test ........................................................ 119 Table 4.6 Empirical results – Effects of the migration on the unemployment rate using GMM estimations ............................................................................................... 121 Table 5.1 Empirical researches on the relationship between climate change and unemployment..................................................................................................... 140 Table 5.2 List of variables and data sources on climatic factors and unemployment rate 151 Table 5.3 Descriptive statistics ........................................................................................... 153 Table 5.4 Collinearity test ................................................................................................... 154 Table 5.5 Multiplier magnifies the variance VIF ................................................................ 155 Table 5.6 The autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity tests ................................................. 156 Table 5.7 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using GLS estimation ....................................................