Tóm tắt Luận án Measures to develop trade relations between Viet Nam and member states of the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU)

INTRODUCTION 1. Reason to choose the thesis Expanding and diversifying trade relations between Viet Nam with all partners is an important task to implement external economic policies of the Party and Government. The Social and Economic Development Strategy for 2011-2020 approved by the XI Congress of the Party laid out instruction: “Diversifying foreign markets, effectively exploiting the markets that have free trade agreements and the markets that have potentials for increasing exports” The Strategy of Import and Export for 2011-2020 with orientation to 2030, issued in the Decision 2471/QD-TTg dated 28/12/2011. The strategy laid out instruction for developing the markets, emphasized on “diversifying export markets; enhancing and expanding the share of Viet Nam’s goods in traditional markets; creating a break-through in developing new export market that have potentials”. For the Africa market, the strategy set a target that this market should account for 5% of the country’s total exports by 2020. In order to implement these policies and orientations, Viet Nam have to decrease its level of independence to a small number of markets, it should actively expanding export markets, including the due attention to new markets like Africa. In the context of globalization, high degree of competition for new markets, it is needed to have regular and updated studies on the Africa market. Africa including 55 countries. Each country and regional market have their own characteristics that need to be studied carefully. Among regional economic organizations in Africa, the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) is the most successful one in Africa and it is also the locomotive for economic development of the continent. SACU was established in 1910 and is the first customs union in the world. It now has five members, namely South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland. The SACU’s countries market is appreciated with high potentials for stable economic growth, huge and diversified demand of goods, mainly the products that have reasonable quality and price. In addition, the political stability of the SACU countries; preferential trade given by the US and EU to products of SACU countries as well as attracting policies for FDI that made SACU region to be an attention of many countries in the world. SACU region is a new market for Vietnamese enterprises. Trade exchange between Viet Nam and SACU is still limited. In 2014, the two-way trade was USD 1.014 billion, of which exports was USD 814 million and imports was USD 200 million. The main reason for the limitation of trade exchange between Viet Nam and SACU countries is that the government and the enterprises of Viet Nam do not have effective measures to enhance and develop trade relations with these countries. Therefore, studying the thesis Measures to develop trade relations between Viet Nam and member states of the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) will contribute scientific ground for the working out policies, macro and micro-level measures to enhance trade exchange between Viet Nam and SACU up to 2020 and vision to 2030. This is the reason for choosing the thesis. 2. Study objectives and tasks * Study objectives: The study objectives of this thesis are identifying viewpoint, orientation and measures at institution and entity levels in developing trade relations between Viet Nam and SACU countries. * Study tasks: - Overviewing scientific works relating to development of trade relations between Viet Nam and SACU countries, issues had been researched, identifying issues have not been or not deeply been then decide to further research in this thesis. - This thesis will theoretically and practicially resarch international trade in general and trade relations between a country and member countries of a customs union in particular. - Analising and evaluating trade policies and measures have been implemented to develop trade relations between Viet Nam and SACU countries; current situation of trade exchange between Viet Nam and SACU countries - Analising prospects and proposing viewpoint, orientation and measures to develop trade relation between Viet Nam and SACU countries up to 2020 and vision to 2030. 3. Study subjects and scope * Study subjects: Thesis will focus on theoritiall and practical issues on developing trade relations between Viet Nam and SACU countries. * Study scopes: - Researching content: Thesis focus on theoritial issues about on development of trade relations between countries; Study implementation of policies and measures to develop trade relations between Viet Nam and SACU countries and propose solutions for further enhancing these relations. - Researching time: Thesis will be studied about status of development of trade relations between countries, mainly trade in goods, between Viet Nam and SACU countries from 1992 upto now and submit solutions to 2020 with vision to 2030 . 4. Study methods * Method using primary data Beside using theoretical study at desk for international trade, this thesis investigate realities, like policy makers, staffs involved in trade promotion, representatives of enterprises and consumers in Viet Nam and SACU countries. * Method using secondary data This thesis has collected scientific works, thesis’s, books, newspapers relating to international trade and trade development between Viet Nam and SACU countries to research using chosen, analyzed, evaluated, summarized methods. 5. The new findings of the thesis: - Theoretically, thesis has summarized and analyzed the development of trade relation between a country on one side and the member countries of a customs union on the other side; clarified contents, forms, criterions of assessment and affecting factors of this relation. - Practically, this thesis has researched experiences of China and India about the development of their trade relations with the member states of SACU, then found out successful lessons that Viet Nam can lean and also the failures that should be avoided. - Analyzed and assessed trade policies and measures that have been implemented to develop trade relation between Viet Nam and member states of SACU; the current situation of trade exchange between Viet Nam and SACU countries, its succesfull outcomes as well as limitations and the reasons. - This thesis also forecasted the context and prospect of the development of trade relation between Viet Nam and member states of SACU. - Finally, the thesis has submitted some measures to develop trade relation between Viet Nam and member states of SACU, including means to push the exchange of goods between the two sides, creating favorable conditions for the enterprises to access the market and increase the competitiveness of the exports of Viet nam in SACU countries. OVERVIEW ON RESEARCHING SITUATION * The foreign studies There are several foreign studies relating to SACU countries, like Colin Mc Carthy’s - The Southern African Customs Union; Gerhard Erasmus’ - New SACU Institutions: Prospects for Regional Integration; Carine Zamay Kiala’s - The Politics of Trade in the Southern African Customs Union: Prospect of a SACU-China Free Trade Agreement; Debesh Bhowmik’s - Regional Integration in Africa: a case study of SACU; WTO - Trade Policy Review of the Southern African Customs Union; Sukati Mphumuzi’s - The Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Region – The Case for South Africa. These studies show the creation and developments of SACU, its economic development, trade policies and trade relations with some countries in the world. However, all of these studies do not directly mention the trade relation between Viet Nam and SACU countries. * The domestic studies In Viet Nam, up to now there are several studies on Africa market, which mention the SACU countries, mainly to South Africa, including: Tran Thi Lan Huong’s Economic Reform in South Africa during 1994-2004; Nguyen Van Thuong et. al. – Measures to develop trade relation between Viet Nam and Africa; Ministry of Industry and Trade’s – Measures to develop trade relations with some countries in Africa; Measures to increase export to the Africa market; Studying measures to increase exports of industrial goods to the Africa market. These studies have issues relating to Africa, the market of Africa, SACU countries, economic and trade relations between Viet Nam and African countries... Each study, with its own way of approach, at different level, had mentioned trade relation between Viet Nam and SACU countries but none of these studies entirely work with the issue of measures to develop trade relation between Viet Nam and SACU countries. Therefore, it can be seen that developing trade relation between Viet Nam and SACU countries is a new issue, that is needed to be studied entirely. Chapter 1 THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL BASIS FOR DEVELOPMET OF TRADE RELATION BETWEEN A COUNTRY AND MEMBER STATES OF A CUSTOMS UNION 1.1. Theoretical basis for trade relation between countries 1.1.1. Overview of theories of international trade relations 1.1.1.1. Theoretical basis for international trade International trade is defined as activities of exchanging, selling and buying goods, services, investing between countries and territories. Classical theories of international trade starts with mercantilism, follewed by theory of absolute advantage of Adam Smith and theory of comparative advantage of David Ricardo. Since early 1900, new therories of international trade arose. They were called new trade theories, including theory of factor endowments by Heckcher – Ohlin, theory of national comtitiveness advantage by Michael Porter, theory of product cycle life of Raymond Vernon and theory of global value chain. 1.1.1.2. Theory of international trade policy International trade policy is a system of regulations, tools and measures that the governments implement to regulate its international trade activities during a given period of time in order to achieve the determined targets. The targets of international trade policy of a country and be different at each period, however, they all aim at taking use of national comparative advantage, support the development of domestic production, increase the competition and expand to the international markets. Theory of international trade policy is the theory relating to the intervention of a government to reach a certain goal in international trade. These policies include policy of free trade and policy of trade protectionism. The tools and measures of the goaled policy (to increase or to limit trade) include economic, technical and administrative ones. They are usually divided into tariff and non-tariff policy. 1.1.2. Characteristics of international trade relations of a custom union International economic integration is an irreversible trend with the level of integration getting more tighten. According to Balassa, there are five levels of international economic integration, from low to high: (i) Free Trade Area (FTA); (ii) Customs Union (CU); (iii) Common Market; (iv) Economic Union and (v) Comprehensive Economic Union. In institution perspective, regional economic integration is described as activities of the governments to liberalize or facilitate trade on regional basis between two or more countries. A customs union is defined as a regional economic organization, in which member countries agree to eliminate trade barrier among its members and accept a common external trade policy. The Southern Africa Customs Union is the first customs union in the world, established in 1910. Argument on customs union studies economic effects in the customs union’s states of movement and rest. The main arguments are: Firstly, a customs union has trade creation effect and trade diversion effect. Secondly, economic benefit of a customs union is determined by the difference in tariff rates and the similarities of the imports and exports of the member countries before the establishment of the customs union. Thirdly, the establishment of a customs union can also create the effect of economic dynamic. 1.2. Contents, forms, criterions of assessment and affecting factors of trade relation between a country and the member countries of a customs union 1.2.1. Contents and forms of development of trade relation In principle, development of trade relation is carried out at two levels, namely institution level and entity level. At institution level, international trade having the participation of nations and public entities can be referred as international relations at the level of trade policies, like policies of tariff and non-tariff, economic integration of a country; or the choice of integration at the global, regional, bilateral or unilateral level in trade cooperation; or the relation between the implementation of international commitments and domestic laws. The major stake-holders of this international trade relations are states and international economic institutions. At institution level, the contents of trade relations including: Joint governmental relations on trade; Negotiation and signing of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements; Cooperation on trade promotion and facilitation at macro level; Mechanism for trade dispute settlements. At entity level, the major stake-holders of international trade are entrepreneur, comprising persons and enterprises. In present, expanding business abroad of an enterprise usually aiming at increasing its revenue and profit, creating new markets, heighten the position of the enterprise at international level or to secure its inputs. The contents of developing trade relations between a country and member countries of a customs union comprising of: Firstly, developing trade in goods. Secondly, promoting trade in services. Thirdly, enhancing investment cooperation. 1.2.2. Criterions of assessment for development of trade relation Within the scope of study, the thesis will mainly study trade in goods and the assessment will be at institution and entity level. The criterions of assessment for the development of relation at institution level are: i) The number and level of joint governmental relations on trade; ii) The number and level of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements had been signed; The number of activities of trade promotion and facilitation cooperation at macro level; The number and level of mechanisms for trade dispute settlements. At entity level, the development of trade relation between a country and member countries of a customs union can be assessed by the quantitative criterions, including: i) Export and import turnover; ii) Trade balance; iii) Composition of imports and exports; iv) Composition of import and export markets; v) Growth rate of imports and exports. 1.2.3. Affecting factors of development of trade relations 1.2.3.1. Objective factors - The economic powers are locomotives and have playing roles of the international trade relations. Beside the developed economies like the US, EU , Japan the role of emerging economies like BRICS countries (including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are getting more important. - The multinational corporation dominate the world economy in general and international trade in particular. - The process of regionalization and globalization requires all countries to develop international relations and participate in international division of labor. - The process of trade liberalization with the removal of trade barriers and creation of principles to regulate international trade relations (regulations of WTO) requires all countries to follows a common playing rule. 1.2.3.2. The subjective factors - The right strategic choice, making policy and its implementation of a country are important factors that affecting trade relations among countries. In case of a customs union, it is required that a consensus to be reached among all members for choosing a trade strategy and policy as well as the role of co-ordination of the steering agency or the country that have influence in the block. - Condition and level of economic development of the countries is material factor that decisively promoting their trade relations, enabling the countries to take advantage of their potentials. - The momentum for promoting trade relations between the countries is the trade promotion activities, of which promotion at macro and micro level are supporting each other. - The regular surveillance and solving dispute during the process of trade relations development will create a favorable condition for a sound trade relations between countries. 1.3. The experience of some countries to develop the trade relations with countries in SACU and the lessons for Vietnam 1.3.1. The experience of some countries to develop the trade relations with countries in SACU 1.3.1.1. The experience of China The development of trade relations of China with countries in SACU is within the developing relationship framework between China and the African countries. At the institutional level, recognizing the important of Africa in the development and construction of the Chinese nation in the new period, China has built its complete policy system in relation with the African countries, including the policies to boost exports Chinese goods into African market. To create the framework for promoting export the goods of the domestic enterprises to the African market, China enhanced the establishment of the friendly cooperation relations with African countries, signed the agreements with the favorable terms for the Chinese goods to penetrate into the African market. Simultaneously, through the non-refundable aids and preferential loans for the African countries to develop the infrastructure, the Chinese Government has created the opportunities for the Chinese enterprises to bring the machineries, materials and technology to the African market. To promote the trade relations between the SACU countries and China, shortly after China joined WTO in 2001, South Africa and other SACU countries recognized that China has the market economy (while, according to the negotiation agreements of joining WTO, China would be recognized as the country has the market economy in 2015). In 2004, Mr. Jacob Zuma, the Deputy President of South Africa at that time, declared that SACU would consider the possibility of FTA negotiation with China. Currently, the two Sides are studying to negotiate this agreement. At the business entity level, the Chinese enterprises, especially the State-owned enterprises, are encouraged as well as supported in exporting to the African market. At the moment, there are around 700 State-owned enterprises of China which have the export activities to the African market and occupy the high proportion compared with other business types, due to these enterprises have large capital and receive the support from the China Government. On the part of Chinese enterprises, besides the facilitation and support by the Government, they are always interested in diversifying the export industries, enhance the competitiveness of products, focused on market research to produce the products which meet the needs of African market. 1.3.1.2. The experience of India At the institutional level, the Indian Government launched several initiatives to promote the trade relation with Africa, including focus on facilitating and supporting for enterprises to export to African market. With SACU countries, India and SACU countries have negotiated since 2002 and expected to sign Preference Trade Agreement (PTA) soon to reduce the tariffs for the import and export of the both parties. India also provided the export credits for SACU countries, in which, USD 100 million for Namibia and increased USD 100 million in 2013; the enterprises of South Africa and Lesotho were also provided the export credit by India fo