Báo cáo Về tiềm năng thị trường bất động sản Việt Nam- Rediscovering Vietnam’s real estate potential

REDISCOVERING VIETNAM’S REAL ESTATE POTENTIAL 1st March, 2007 Renaissance Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Presented by: Marc Townsend – Managing Director CB Richard Ellis | Page 2 Client Logo Goes Here WHAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE PROPERTY MARKET SINCE 2003? •Limited capital markets •An emerging condo market in Hanoi and HCMC • Conspicuous consumption • Ability to borrow from local banks at 10-11% per annum • Consistently rising GDP and FDI • China + 1, APRC, the Stock Market and entry to WTO has put Vietnam on the radar screen, coupled with the ML report in Feb and the Euro Money Conference in Mar 2006 • Saturation in other South East Asian markets CB Richard Ellis | Page 3 Client Logo Goes Here MAP OF VIETNAM CB Richard Ellis | Page 4 Client Logo Goes Here HO CHI MINH CITY CB Richard Ellis | Page 5 Client Logo Goes Here VIETNAM TODAY • No Starbucks and No MacDonalds • World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns, oil & gas exports • No shortage of land, just good sites • “If you build it, they will come” still exists but may not last much longer • Many similarities to China in the early 90s in terms of work ethic, chaos on the streets, migration of work force and market driven decisions • Traffic, complete absence of infrastructure, MRT/MTR, bridges and tunnels CB Richard Ellis | Page 6 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET HCMC Prime Office Stock End of Q1.2007 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 Q 1 / 0 4 Q 2 / 0 4 Q 3 / 0 4 Q 4 / 0 4 Q 1 / 0 5 Q 2 / 0 5 Q 3 / 0 5 Q 4 / 0 5 Q 1 / 0 6 Q 2 / 0 6 Q 3 / 0 6 Q 4 / 0 6 Q 1 / 0 7 s qm Office Stock at the beginning of the quarter New supply during the quarter CB Richard Ellis | Page 7 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET Prime Office Rental Index 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Q 1 9 8 Q 2 9 8 Q 3 9 8 Q 4 9 8 Q 1 9 9 Q 2 9 9 Q 3 9 9 Q 4 9 9 Q 1 0 0 Q 2 0 0 Q 3 0 0 Q 4 0 0 Q 1 0 1 Q 2 0 1 Q 3 0 1 Q 4 0 1 Q 1 0 2 Q 2 0 2 Q 3 0 2 Q 4 0 2 Q 1 0 3 Q 2 0 3 Q 3 0 3 Q 4 0 3 Q 1 0 4 Q 2 0 4 Q 3 0 4 Q 4 0 4 Q 1 0 5 Q 2 0 5 Q 3 0 5 Q 4 0 5 Q 1 0 6 Q 2 0 6 Q 3 0 6 Q 4 0 6 Q 1 . 0 7 I n d e x ( Q 1 1 9 9 8 = 1 0 0 ) And the upward trend will continue due to: • Growing demand • Delays in new supply US-VN Bilateral Trade Agreement CB Richard Ellis | Page 8 Client Logo Goes Here Major Buildings Existing - Future Centec EVN Vietcombank Times Square M&C Tower Financial Tower VPBank Sailing Tower Pacific Place Asiana Plaza Metropolitan Saigon Tower Sun Wah Saigon Center Diamond Plaza Gemadept Saigon Trade Center Me Linh Point PetroVietnam9 DTH Vimedimex Sacombank Bao Viet Golden Tower CB Richard Ellis | Page 9 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET SOME OF THE NEW OFFICE BUILDINGS COMPLETED IN Q1. 2007 Opera View, Dist. 1 Lancaster, Dist. 1 Rosaco, Dist. 1 Petro Vietnam, Dist. 1 E – Town 2, Tan Binh District Estimated Total Supply in Q1. 2007: 47,843 sqm CB Richard Ellis | Page 10 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET Take up and vacancy rate of HCMC office buildings - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Q1.04 Q2.04 Q3.04 Q4.04 Q1.05 Q2.05 Q3.05 Q4.05 Q1.06 Q2.06 Q3.06 Q4.06 s q m 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% % Take-up (Sqm) Vacancy Rate (%) CB Richard Ellis | Page 11 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates Rental growth of Grade A 2006 - 2007 23 29.5 Q1/2006 Q1/2007 *Note : Rents excluding S . C and VAT uni t : US$ growth rate 28% Q1 - 2006 $23.00 Q1 - 2007 $29.50 Increase of 28% Occupancy 100% CB Richard Ellis | Page 12 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates Rental Growth of Grade B 2006 - 2007 21 26.5 Q1/2006 Q1/2007 * Note : rents e xcluding S .C and VAT uni t :US$ growth rate 26% Q1 - 2006 $21.00 Q1 - 2007 $26.50 Increase of 26% Occupancy 99% CB Richard Ellis | Page 13 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates Rental Growth of Grade C 2006 - 2007 17.5 20.5 Q1/2006 Q1/2007 * Note : rents excluding S .C and VAT uni t : US$ growth rate 17% Q1 - 2006 $17.50 Q1 - 2007 $20.50 Increase of 17% Occupancy 95% CB Richard Ellis | Page 14 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET Market Outlook in 2007: 9 Limited grade A office space still remains. 9 Some new supply of Grade B office space expected to come on line during 2007. 9Factors driving demand: Strong economic growth, FDI growth, WTO access, new multi-national companies, expansion of existing multi-national companies, Vietnam companies upgrading, safety & quality Issues 9 Grade A office rental rates reflects upward momentum and growing demand vis-à-vis tight supply 9 Vacancy rate remains low, grade A (0%) and B (<1%) 180,657182008 187,824152009 273,146122010 800,42572TOTAL 158,798272007 Expected supply (sqm) Supply of new grade A, B & C buildings Expected year of completion CB Richard Ellis | Page 15 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET HCMC MAJOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION OFFICE DEVELOPMENTS IN Q1&Q2/07 3,100 8,000 27,000 1,600 10,143 10,780 3,960 7,600 6,000 11,945 6,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Opera View - Dist. 1 Rosaco Tower - Dist. 1 E-Town 2 - Tan Binh Lancaster Petro VN, Dist. 1 Vimedimex - Dist. 1 E-Star, Dist. 3 ITAXA, Dist. 3 N'Orch - Dist. 1 Cetpa - Tan Binh Manulife - Dist. 7 Q 1 . 2 0 0 7 Q 2 . 2 0 0 7 (Source: CBRE) sqm CB Richard Ellis | Page 16 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET EXPECTED FUTURE SUPPLY OFFICE SPACE (2007 - 2010) 273,146 187,824180,657 158,798 Expected completion in 2007 Expected completion in 2008 Expected completion in 2009 Expected completion in 2010 (unit sqm) Rosaco Tower Petro VN VP Bank Tower Sacom Bank Centec Asiana Plaza Financial Tower Vietcombank Tower 2007 2008 2009 2010 CB Richard Ellis | Page 17 Client Logo Goes Here THE MARKET’S TIMING – LARGER BUILDINGS Bao Viet 20,000 sqm (owner occupied) VPBank 20,000 sqm (12,000 sqm for lease) Times Square 31,000 sqm HCMC Power Head Office 20,000 sqm (10,000 sqm for lease) Centec 25,000 sqm Asiana Plaza 32,000 sqm Vietcombank 77,000 sqm Financial Tower 100,000 sqm M&C Tower 35,000 sqm 2008 2009 2010 113,000 sqm 212,000 sqm 2010 2011 Gemadept 16,500 sqm (10,000 sqm for lease) A & B 25,000 sqm 2010 76,500 sqm (32,000 sqm for lease) CB Richard Ellis | Page 18 Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC Number of Condos and Projects launched year-by-year 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 C o n d o s 0 10 20 30 40 50 P r o j e c t s Uni ts 648 0 0 0 150 0 0 124 1,234 3,418 7,644 10,37 11,47 7,270 Projects 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 16 27 42 33 9 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 CB Richard Ellis | Page 19 Client Logo Goes Here MAP OF CONDO PROJECTS IN HCMC CB Richard Ellis | Page 20 Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC Completed Condominium Units year-by-year 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Over US$2,000 141 252 US$1,501 - US$2,000 526 US$1,001 - US$1,500 97 66 270 405 US$600 - US$1,000 798 124 1,110 1,965 1,330 Less US$600 552 1,594 881 1999 2003 2004 2005 2006 Q1/07 CB Richard Ellis | Page 21 Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC Average Se l l ing P r i ce Change of T ypical High-end Condo P rojects in Dist r i c t 1 Indochina P ark Tower US$ 1800 Indochina P ark Tower US$ 1,500 The Lancaster US$ 3,450 The Lancaster US$ 2,050 Avalon US$ 2,800 Avalon US$ 2,089 Ho rizon US$ 1,300Ho rizon US 850 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2003 2004 2005 Q1/ 06 Q2/ 06 Q3/ 06 Q4/ 06 Q1/ 07 CB Richard Ellis | Page 22 Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC Average Se l l ing P r i ce Change of Typical High-end Condo P rojects in Di str i ct 2 and Binh Thanh R iver Garden US$ 900 R iver Garden US$ 1,400 Saigon P earl US$ 1,100 Saigon P earl US$ 1,500 The M ano r US$ 2,200 The M ano r US$ 1,000 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2003 2004 2005 Q1/ 06 Q2/ 06 Q3/ 06 Q4/ 06 Q1/ 07 CB Richard Ellis | Page 23 Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC Ratio between launched and sold units year-by-year 0 9000 18000 27000 36000 45000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Accumulation of remaining units 648 798 922 3226 6284 12082 22755 36909 Acummulation of sold units 0 72 100 708 2,609 6,913 12,810 19,517 Average ratio between sold and available 0% 9% 11% 22% 42% 57% 56% 53% 1994 1998 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 CB Richard Ellis | Page 24 Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC – FUTURE SUPPLY Projects will be completed in 2007 – 2009 Central Garden-D.1 Hung Vuong Plaza-D.5 Cantavil-D.2 River Garden-D.2 Capitaland Vista-D.2 Ben Thanh Orient Plaza-D.1 New Development year-by-year 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 Condo uni ts 10,152 11,081 10,995 Projects 44 33 12 2007 2008 2009 CB Richard Ellis | Page 25 Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC TRENDS: 9New money flow from stock market into property. 9Strong investment wave from Asia: Korea, Japan, Singapore. Keen on buying projects already licensed and under construction instead of leasing land, developing from the beginning. 9Hot market with more money from foreign institutional and individual investors activated by Land Law effective from 1 Jul 06 and Property Trading Law from 1 Jan 07. 9With encouraging Government policies, more developers investing in low income projects. CB Richard Ellis | Page 26 Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC TRENDS: 9Price of low to mid end projects expected to be stable. 9Price of high end projects with good zoning and infrastructure remain high. 9More buyers have real needs and there will not be as many as speculators as previously. 9Demand forecasted to be increased 6-7% in a few years to come partly thanks to loan flexibility of banks. 9Buyers become more and more savvy, so developer’s brand plays a more and more important role. CB Richard Ellis | Page 27 Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL VILLA HCMC Phu GIa – PMH town Thao Nguyen SG-D.9 Thu Duc Garden Home-TD Villa Riviera – D.2 An Phu Dong Villa – D.12 Price Trend of Phu Gia, Villa Riviera and Thu Duc Garden Home (from launch to Q4/06) US$1,000 30% US$2,000 210% 90% 70% 50% US$1,500 US$2,400 33% 20% US$680 U$S700 3%0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Phu Gia - PMH town (launched in 2001) Villa Riviera - D.2 (launched in 2004) Thu Duc Garden Home (launched in 2005) CB Richard Ellis | Page 28 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE MARKET OVERVIEW Ho Chi Minh City Serviced Apartments Positives: 9 No Maintenance 9 Facilities – Gym, Pool 9 Security 9 Fully Furnished Negatives: 9 Difficult Termination 9 Higher Rental Cost 9 Generic Appearance 9 Less Usable Area Current Serviced Apar tments 0 40 80 120 160 200 D i a m o n d P l a z a S h e r a t o n ( O c e a n P l a c e ) N o r f o l k M a n s i o n S e d o n a S u i t e s S o m e r s e t C h a n c e l l o r C o u r t S o m e r s e t H C M C L a n d m a r k L T T C o u r t H B T C o u r t C i t y V i e w Units 0 10 20 30 40 50 Supply Average Rent ($US/sqm/mth) CB Richard Ellis | Page 29 Client Logo Goes Here District 1 & 3 ƒ Highest demand for serviced apartments ƒ Very limited supply, especially for International quality projects. There are 7 grade A serviced apartment projects provide over 500 units from 1 to 4 bedrooms. ƒ Average occupancy rate is now 96% (both grade A and B) with most marketable size of 1 & 2 bedrooms, from 50 – 80 sqm ƒ The rent for most of the serviced apartments are up by 10 – 20%, from US$22 to US$31 per sqm per month in January 2006 to US$25 to US$35 in December 2006 ƒ Due to the limited supply and growing demand, rent are expected to keep rising during 2007. RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC CB Richard Ellis | Page 30 Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC An Phu, An Khanh, District 2 ƒ Still an attractive area for tenants with family ƒ Limited good quality villas and serviced apartments ƒ Few new developing projects in apartments and gated compound (River View and River Garden) ƒ Average rent of US$2,500 to 3,500 per month. With a 15% - 20% increase in rental prices within the past year. CB Richard Ellis | Page 31 Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC – IN DISTRICT 2 $11$5,0004504 Nguyen U Di $4.50$9002002 Thao Dien Villa $6.25$2,5004004 Thao Dien Compound $9$3,3003503Le Van Mien $12$7,0006005 Nguyen Van Huong Rent/SQMAsking Rent/Month SQMBedroomsPictureLocation CB Richard Ellis | Page 32 Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC - 2007 NEW SUPPLY 1,160 11,300 3,300 27,531 Total sqm 10 – 12 11 - 20 30 - 38 21 - 32 Target Rent $/sqm/mth Unit types No of Units CompletionLocationProject 4-5 bdrs11January 2007 Saigon Queen Villa Nguyen Van Huong, An Phu, District 2, 15 minutes to CBD 1-4 bdrs100February 2007 Green Hills Lot 25, Quang Trung Software Park, District 12, 40 minutes to CBD 1-3 bdrs40 - 50February/ March 2007 The Lancaster Le Thanh Ton Street, District 1, CBD 2-4 bdrs228 February/March 2007 Pasteur Court Pasteur Street, District 3, 5 minutes to CBD CB Richard Ellis | Page 33 Client Logo Goes Here An Phu Small SA The Manor 2 Kumho Asiana Plaza Times Square Saigon Riverview Apartments Saigon Pearl RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC - FUTURE PROJECTS CB Richard Ellis | Page 34 Client Logo Goes Here VN STOCK MARKET VN Index from 18 July 2000 to 27 February 2007 CB Richard Ellis | Page 35 Client Logo Goes Here VN STOCK MARKET 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2000 2007 VN index 28/7/2000:2 listed companies - VN Index: 100 – Daily turnover Avg. $45m 27/2/2007:107 listed companies & 2 funds- VN Index: 1167.36 - Market capitalisation:$15b VN Index: increased by 9.5 times 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2000 2007 Market cap Market cap: increased by 300 times CB Richard Ellis | Page 36 Client Logo Goes Here 100 RICHEST PEOPLE IN VIETNAM (Till 3rd Jan 2007) 71,625,500MPCDeputy DirectorChu Thị Bình - Deputy Director5 71,625,500MPCMinh Phú Fisheries Lê Văn Quang - Chairman & General Director 4 74,562,500FPT FPT- Technology Investment and Development Co. Bùi Quang Ngọc - Vice Chairman & Deputy Director 3 106,625,000FPT FPT- Technology Investment and Development Co. Lê Quang Tiến – Vice Chairman & Deputy Director2 147,125,000 FPT FPT- Technology Investment and Development Co. Trương Gia Bình – Chairman & General Director 1 Value (US$)CodeListed companiesName Rank CB Richard Ellis | Page 37 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC RETAIL MARKET 2004 RANK2005 RANK2006 RANKCOUNTRY 8910TURKEY 579CROATIA 458SLOVENIA 667LATVIA --6CHILE 345CHINA 1134UKRAINE 783VIETNAM 122RUSSIA 211INDIA Source: AT Kearny Top 10 Countries for Retail Investment CB Richard Ellis | Page 38 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC RETAIL MARKET HCMC Shopping Centre Existing Supply 6,252 5,700 8,000 1,366 6,810 21,797 17,000 14,670 18,000 5,000 5,000 Saigon Centre Dist. 1 Saigon Superbowl Tan Binh Diamond Plaza Dist. 1 Lucky Plaza Dist. 1 Zen Plaza Dist. 1 Thuan Kieu Plaza Dist. 5 Parkson Dist. 1 Tax Plaza Dist. 1 An Dong Plaza Dist. 5 Saigon Square Eden Mall Dist. 1 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 (Source: CB Richard Ellis) CB Richard Ellis | Page 39 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC RETAIL MARKET AVERAGE OCCUPANCY & RENTAL RATES OF HCMC CBD RETAIL CENTRES 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 $150 CBD prime occupancy rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 95% 95% 95% 94% 100% 100% CBD prime average rents $32.40 $32.40 $32.40 $35.33 $36.67 $39.95 $43.03 $45.11 $49.21 $59.68 $80.00 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 CB Richard Ellis | Page 40 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC RETAIL MARKET unit: US$/sqm/month COMPAR ISON OF R ETAIL R ENTS IN CIT IE S IN SOUTH EAST AS IA 727 560 290 191 185 133 70 80 48 20 Hong Kong Bangkok S ingapore Taipei Shanghai Beijing Jakarta Ho Chi Minh City New Delhi Manila (Source: CBR E) CB Richard Ellis | Page 41 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC RETAIL MARKET Source: CB Richard Ellis Growth in prime retail rates in HCMC from 2006 to 2007 140 170 Q1/2006 Q1/2007 *Note: Rents excluding S. C and VAT unit: US$/sqm/month growth rate 21% CB Richard Ellis | Page 42 Client Logo Goes Here Eden Mall 106 Nguyen Hue St, Dist.1 Size: 5,000 sqm Launch December 2006 Rents: $30 - $70 per sqm Occupancy 90% HCMC RETAIL MARKET – NEW RETAIL CENTRES CB Richard Ellis | Page 43 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC RETAIL MARKET – NEW RETAIL CENTRES SAIGON SQUARE 3 Le Van Huu, Dist. 1 Launch January 2007 Size: 5,000 sqm Rents: 66 - $100 per sqm Occupancy 100% CB Richard Ellis | Page 44 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC RETAIL MARKET – FUTURE SUPPLY HCMC Future Supply 1,280 4,300 15,000 33,000 2,560 12,367 11,882 6,880 8,292 30,000 Opera View Dist. 1 Tan Da Court Dist. 5 Saigon Paragon Dist. 7 Hung Vuong Plaza Dist. 5 Sailing Tower Dist. 1 Times Square Dist. 1 Happiness Square Dist. 5 Kumho Asiana Dist. 1 SJC Tower Dist. 1 Saigon Pearl Binh Thanh 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 (Sou rce : CBRE) sqm CB Richard Ellis | Page 45 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC RETAIL MARKET – FUTURE SUPPLY COMING NEXT IN EARLY 2007 OPERA VIEW – 161 – 167 Dong Khoi, Dist. 1 Retail GFA: 1,280 sqm Rents: US$80 to US$130 per sqm Occupancy: 100% Major tenant: Louis Vuitton CB Richard Ellis | Page 46 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC RETAIL MARKET – FUTURE SUPPLY COMING IN 2008 SAIGON PARAGON Nguyen Luong Bang, Dist.7 Retail area: 7,984 sqm Entertainment area: 7,016 sqm CB Richard Ellis | Page 47 Client Logo Goes Here HCMC RETAIL MARKET – FUTURE SUPPLY HUNG VUONG PLAZA Location: 126 Hung Vuong St. Dist 5. Developer : M&C and Kinh Do Mixed use development with 6 levels of retail inc. cinema and 2 basement parking. Leasable Area : 17,000sqm Opening : Q1/2008 Major tenants: Parkson and Megastar CB Richard Ellis | Page 48 Client Logo Goes Here Hotel Market HCMC 416,785 TOTAL 83231,903 3 - star 18181,447 4 - star 344 103,435 5 – star ROOMS PER HOTEL HOTELSROOMSHOTEL HOTELS FROM FIVE TO THREE STARS, 2006 (Source: CBRE) No. of Hotels No. of Rooms 57.50% 17.50% 25.00% 28.05% 21.33% 50.63% 5 – star 4 - star 3 - star CB Richard Ellis | Page 49 Client Logo Goes Here Hotel Market HCMC 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 5 star 108.00 128.20 4 star 80.00 94.96 3 star 45.00 53.42 2005 2006(Est.) AVERAGE ROOM RATE (US$), 2005-2006 Average % Increase from 2005 5 Star - 15.76% 4 Star - 15.75% 3 Star - 15.79% D1 5 Star Hotel Rates on average range from: $77 - $165 per night CB Richard Ellis | Page 50 Client Logo Goes Here Hotel Market HCMC 68.00% 70.00% 72.00% 74.00% 76.00% 78.00% 80.00% 82.00% 84.00% 5 star 4 star 3 star 5 star 77.00% 73.92% 4 star 81.50% 77.43% 3 star 82.50% 83.33% 2005 2006(Est.) AVERAGE OCCUPANCY RATE 2005 -2006Est Average Occupancy growth rate +/- 5 Star - 3.08% - 4 Star - 4.